By changing the terms of war, the US seeks to overcome the current stalemate in Ukraine
1. The new (second) Trump administration attempts and seeks to respond to the basic problem of American imperialism as it has been shaped by the developments during the last three decades: its relative retreat, its rivals (Russia, China) getting closer which puts in the not too distant perspective of challenging its primacy on the world stage. This development has produced and is still producing tremors and a loosening of cohesion in the Western alliance led by the USA and regressions-shifting to the other side in important regional powers.
Therefore, the US seek and look for the "revision" of this correlation, the conquest of unchallenged hegemony/sovereignty in the world. It is towards this and for this strategic goal that all the centres of power and the dominant forces within the USA are moving. Their sharp contrasts (even expressed in civil war terms during the last presidential elections) concern the tactical choices that will serve this goal. These contradictions are fierce (and should not be assumed as having been resolved) because there are many and critical contradictions that each tactical option produces in furthering the goal of global hegemony/dominance.
2. Already in its first steps, the Trump administration has highlighted the two main elements of the policy with which it seeks to respond to the challenge for the US:
a) the geostrategic and at the same time economic strengthening and upgrading of US imperialism by imposing control, "annexation" and even the conquest of points and countries of strategic importance so that US imperialism can be shielded and ejected far above its rivals.
b) The alignment-subjugation of its Western allies to its aims.
The Trump administration demands to unconditionally "enlist", the European imperialists and the EU, even England, and of course Canada, politically and economically behind the US strategy. They exploit and use the strategic (nuclear) power of Russia and the constant upgrading of China at all levels to exert economic, political and ultimately strategic blackmail on "their" alliance. They are waving the (real) threat that without their hegemony, the "rest" of the West cannot face the rising "East". That is why it demands that its allies line up as American imperialism sees fit, without any commitment as to the course to be followed, the roles and positions that its allies will find in its development. This is also the context of the US' declared exclusion of the Europeans from the US-Russia negotiations and their relegation to the role of... partner who will simply co-sign any interim agreement, if and when it exists. US imperialism therefore proclaims that it will "save the West" from its adversaries through MAGA which the whole West must serve! This demand is expressed by the cynicism of American interventions even within the governments and political systems of the European imperialists, or the "economic absurdity" of the tariff war accompanied by the demand to establish the industries of others... inside the USA!
It is obvious that these two policies are interlinked. The promotion of one is a precondition for the promotion of the other. For example, the "conquest" (literal or figurative) of Greenland or the "annexation" of Canada presuppose the "agreement" or — to put it better — the alignment of the European imperialists. Let us recall that the Biden administration towards the end of its term of office had in a similar spirit 'enlisted' Japanese imperialism in US needs in the Pacific region. But of course Trump's pursuit is on a much larger scale and of a different — global — order of magnitude.
3. It is on this basis that the Trump administration seeks to address the issue of Ukraine, the number one issue of US imperialism, in which all the issues of imperialist rivalry are currently concentrated and in which the main inter-imperialist opposition, that between the US and Russia, is reflected in terms of war (threatened and threatening to go nuclear). It is a war built by US imperialism through years of efforts and blackmail (the pro-Western Orange "revolution" that overthrew the newly elected pro-Russian Yanukovych in 2004, the proposal for Ukraine to join NATO in 2008, the Maidan coup in 2014), considering Ukraine as the "corridor" through which to reach the gates of Moscow. The war was finally declared by Russia in February 2022 and the situation on the ground (with the US-West involved through the Zelensky regime) has highlighted the familiar impasse: the occupation of 20% of Ukraine by Russia, with no military prospect — in the terms given — of reversing this course. At the same time, however, given the strategic stakes of the war, the US cannot and will not retreat or withdraw from Ukraine!
Trump's so-called "peace" proposal seeks to and looks for a modification of the current terms of war on the basis of American aspirations. More specifically, this proposal:
a) It asks Russia to accept and sign the deployment of a large number (100,000-200,000) of Western (European) troops in Ukraine, with full and all kinds of armaments. Such are the quantitative and qualitative specifications of the "peacekeeping force" that Trump wants to install in Ukraine, after the "agreement" he is going to propose to Putin. Because this "peace force" will not have as its main mission to ensure that the United States seize Ukraine's scarce land and wealth, which, according to Trump, they "owe" it to American imperialism. This force will have the role of encircling and wearing down a similar force that Russia will need to deploy in its eastern occupied Ukraine. Most importantly and ultimately, this force will be a Western military wall that will block the possibility of re-establishing Russian-European imperialist relations, that will prohibit the "exit" of Russian imperialism to Central Europe, the Balkans and the West as a whole.
b) It demands above all that the European imperialists (and of course the "willing allies" from Poland to Greece...) campaign in Ukraine, giving a very concrete form to Rutte's instructions of last December, according to which the Europeans must understand that "we are at war" and that their political-economic choices must be ordered accordingly.
In essence, then, Trump's proposal seeks to militarily insert the West into Ukraine, an issue that is currently an absolute "red line" for Russia which, even for the sending of long-range weapons by the West, threatens to respond with so-called tactical nukes against the senders of the weapons.
At the same time, this proposal seeks to literally enlist the European imperialists in the American objective of the US goal of the containment-repulsion-exhaustion of Russia.
On this basis — but also given the Russian occupation of 20% of Ukraine — Trump's proposal appears today to accept this occupation or — to put it better — not to call today for the return of the territories occupied by Russia, since this would be meaningless.
Finally, regarding Trump's "commitment" that Ukraine will not join NATO, it has the same and even less value than the "assurances" that the US-West gave Gorbachev that after the unification of West–East Germany NATO "would not go further" East !
4. The Trump administration appears to be "rushing" to promote this proposal and most likely means it, as the "time" factor is pushing US imperialism to formulate responses. However, this in no way means that both Russia and the European imperialists (each for their own reasons) will respond to this proposal.
Russia has repeatedly and in all tones declared that it seeks an agreement in which the part of Ukraine it does not occupy will be at least "disarmed" and perhaps divided into pieces among the countries of the region. It is therefore difficult if not unlikely that it will accept on the one hand to be declared the 'winner' of the war and on the other hand to sign the upgrade of the war front against it a few hundred kilometres away.
Moreover, Moscow proclaims and seeks a "new security architecture in Europe" and in the Balkans, i.e. to upgrade its imperialist role and its global perspectives. How, then, will it accept the military and war upgrade of its entrenchment?
The European imperialists are already under the heavy burden of their own issues. Recession, de-industrialisation, political instability are confronting Berlin in the midst of an escalating energy dependence on the US and with the well-known military–strategic constraints on a comprehensive manifestation of its imperialist ambitions. Defeats and withdrawals from Africa are experienced by French imperialism, which is also in a state of prolonged political instability. All this while a realignment of forces and borders is taking place in the Middle East, where the European imperialists have little or no influence. How, then, while facing all of the things we have indicated (and also Trump's pursuit of Greenland, Canada, etc.) will they accept an engagement in Ukraine of such an order as that envisaged by Trump's proposal? An engagement that would in effect mean that they would be forced to abandon their imperialist pursuits elsewhere, make the situation at home much more burdensome, and "devote themselves" to serving the American project?
China is bound to have its own concerns about Trump's proposal and has already asked to have a "place" in the discussion on Ukraine as the organiser of the Trump-Putin meeting on its territory. It is possible that, in the next period, the strategic cooperation between Russia and China will appear as another "diplomatic" factor of modification–abrogation of the Trump proposal.
5. Under all these contradictions and inconsistency, it is a question that will be answered in the near future, whether and which aspects of this proposal can be temporarily advanced, i.e. whether there will be a certain temporary and fragile compromise. However, and in any case, Trump's proposal is not only 'peace', it is not only aimed at 'ending the war' in Ukraine. What it really aims at is changing the terms of the war so that the US can overcome the current impasse it faces by waging this war by proxy against an imperialist power with the military and strategic depth that power has.
Based on all that we mentioned, it is obvious that what Trump's proposal will certainly bring is new complications and tensions in imperialist antagonisms, but also an intensification of the conflicts in the Ukrainian field. Vance's statements about intensifying economic and military actions against Russia "if it does not show good faith in the Trump proposal" (a statement that was later retracted — an example of the backsliding and deadlocks of the various imperialists and the US) are already a testimony to the real character of this US blackmail towards allies and adversaries. With Trump's proposal, Bush the Younger's "with us or against us" in 2001 after the Twin Towers is repeated on a much larger scale and in every direction and in conditions of much hotter competition with a war that has already lasted three years in the centre of Europe!
The "analyses" of "new Yalta" and the plans for "reconstruction" (in Ukraine, Gaza and elsewhere) either belong to the realm of political stupidity, or they are aimed at misleading and disarming the popular masses! The capitalist–imperialist system in general is in the phase of "demolition" and destruction, not that of "reconstruction" and "development". Just like the "reconstruction plans" of Ukraine obviously trying to distract from the horrors of war and the black future that awaits the Ukrainian people, so the "reconstruction" of Gaza is a very small fig leaf that tries in vain to hide the American backs to the "final solution" of the Zionist state, namely the expulsion of the people of Palestine from their land, but also the blackmailing of the reactionary Arab regimes to restart the "Abraham Accords".
Skipping the historical distortion and the well-known vulgar anti-communism about what Yalta was, as well, we need to demonstrate that Trump's proposal is not a proposal for a "peaceful settlement" of the world. It is not the "end of war". It is another step in the build-up to World War III. With ruthless rivalries, with adventurisms of all forms and scales, this is the only perspective the imperialists can build to respond to the deadlocks of this barbaric and rotten system.
The mass anti-imperialist struggle, the People's Struggle Front against all the killers of the planet, inspired and guided by the revolutionary communist perspective, is the only real answer.
Sunday 16 February 2025
The Political Bureau of the CPG(m-l)
